* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972015 07/10/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 40 47 60 73 84 87 89 91 92 93 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 40 47 60 73 84 87 89 91 92 93 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 40 51 65 78 88 93 92 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 18 22 18 15 16 12 3 5 7 12 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 -2 -3 -4 -8 -4 -1 -2 -2 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 61 56 58 60 58 54 58 104 146 113 111 130 100 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.7 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 153 153 153 153 152 150 148 144 142 139 131 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -51.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 72 71 69 69 70 72 74 72 67 65 66 65 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 11 13 14 16 17 19 20 20 21 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 68 75 84 91 109 124 145 145 136 132 132 115 108 200 MB DIV 155 125 108 119 117 116 150 157 131 57 58 17 12 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 2 0 -1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 2006 2025 2041 2045 2050 2048 2017 1987 1965 1952 1939 1950 1981 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.8 11.5 12.4 13.5 14.6 15.3 15.8 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.2 123.7 124.1 124.4 124.9 125.3 125.9 126.7 127.5 128.1 128.8 129.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 6 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 6 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 31 33 35 38 41 43 41 40 44 39 31 23 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 32. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 18. 20. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 15. 22. 35. 48. 59. 62. 64. 66. 67. 68. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 07/10/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST 07/10/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##