* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982015 07/10/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 17 18 20 21 25 31 35 37 39 40 42 42 V (KT) LAND 15 17 18 20 21 25 31 35 37 39 40 42 42 V (KT) LGE mod 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 17 18 19 21 22 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 19 20 19 19 17 13 8 8 2 11 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 2 -3 -2 -2 -7 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 232 220 201 193 198 176 190 177 240 182 115 95 94 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.2 30.0 29.9 29.3 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 163 165 165 168 166 165 157 149 144 140 140 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 83 84 84 85 83 79 78 77 77 78 76 78 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 48 46 49 47 37 16 4 -4 -5 -9 -3 -6 200 MB DIV 70 44 66 85 85 61 65 43 27 39 65 59 43 700-850 TADV 4 3 6 8 7 11 8 7 0 2 0 0 4 LAND (KM) 521 494 450 408 368 342 322 337 391 502 583 617 686 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.3 11.7 12.3 12.8 14.0 15.2 16.3 17.1 17.5 17.7 17.7 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 95.2 96.1 96.9 97.9 98.9 101.2 103.6 105.8 107.8 109.4 110.8 112.1 113.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 11 12 13 13 11 9 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 64 69 73 73 71 41 53 49 36 24 15 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 6. 15. 26. 34. 39. 42. 45. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 10. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. 27. 27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982015 INVEST 07/10/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 147.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 70.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982015 INVEST 07/10/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##