* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE CP012015 07/10/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 42 45 48 49 50 46 48 45 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 42 45 48 49 50 46 48 45 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 32 33 35 36 38 40 42 42 42 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 5 6 6 8 9 9 10 11 19 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -4 -5 -6 -4 -4 -3 -3 0 2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 106 220 221 216 244 303 284 296 256 249 247 255 260 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 145 146 147 147 146 146 145 146 146 145 145 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 60 59 60 62 60 62 66 69 67 63 66 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 15 15 16 14 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 111 109 106 105 106 96 82 79 69 54 31 29 24 200 MB DIV 18 12 27 29 26 15 36 68 93 72 26 20 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -1 1 6 4 7 7 LAND (KM) 1660 1721 1785 1861 1939 2096 2252 4109 3984 3870 3775 3628 3429 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 12.4 13.1 13.7 14.4 15.4 16.7 17.7 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 170.8 171.7 172.6 173.6 174.6 176.8 178.9 180.8 182.6 184.6 186.8 188.8 190.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 9 10 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 41 39 38 42 52 56 57 65 61 60 61 61 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 23. 26. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. -1. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. 16. 18. 15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012015 ONE 07/10/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012015 ONE 07/10/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##