* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO CP022015 07/10/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 39 42 46 49 53 53 55 56 58 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 39 42 46 49 53 53 55 56 58 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 35 36 40 43 46 50 54 59 63 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 11 9 7 11 9 8 6 17 17 21 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -4 -5 -3 -3 -4 -3 -4 -8 -10 -8 SHEAR DIR 57 65 82 86 82 66 86 70 28 26 34 37 39 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 141 140 140 136 137 138 140 144 145 145 144 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 68 67 62 60 55 55 53 52 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 49 41 39 31 19 8 17 18 28 34 36 32 39 200 MB DIV 16 -4 5 13 23 13 4 -19 -27 -20 0 -2 -20 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 0 0 0 1 0 -2 -2 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 846 816 790 755 728 706 783 916 1058 1138 1238 1357 1504 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.5 13.6 13.3 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 155.0 155.5 156.1 156.8 157.5 159.1 160.5 162.0 163.6 165.2 167.0 168.7 170.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 9 8 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 12 12 16 14 12 12 19 40 44 37 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 16. 19. 23. 24. 25. 26. 28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022015 TWO 07/10/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 TWO 07/10/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##