* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972015 07/10/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 46 52 64 76 82 85 86 89 89 89 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 46 52 64 76 82 85 86 89 89 89 V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 38 42 46 55 65 76 84 89 89 86 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 19 14 15 13 7 9 6 10 6 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -2 -2 -4 -8 -4 -4 -2 -3 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 53 52 60 50 44 45 60 129 109 94 108 108 70 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 153 153 152 151 149 146 143 140 134 123 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.5 -52.0 -52.3 -51.7 -52.3 -51.5 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 68 68 71 71 68 65 65 63 65 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 14 14 16 19 19 21 21 22 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR 78 90 100 110 112 126 145 127 130 124 122 112 90 200 MB DIV 127 93 103 122 107 130 152 158 72 71 58 35 47 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 -2 -2 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 2008 2018 2027 2033 2040 2047 2026 2011 1997 1986 1989 2012 2035 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.4 12.2 13.2 14.2 15.0 15.5 16.1 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 123.2 123.7 124.2 124.6 124.9 125.6 126.2 127.0 127.7 128.4 129.0 129.9 131.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 34 36 40 41 42 44 46 50 41 31 24 16 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 27. 29. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 14. 16. 16. 19. 20. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 22. 34. 46. 52. 55. 56. 59. 59. 59. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 07/10/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST 07/10/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##