* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982015 07/10/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 15 16 17 18 22 25 29 32 34 34 33 33 V (KT) LAND 15 15 16 17 18 22 25 29 32 34 34 33 33 V (KT) LGE mod 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 17 16 13 10 6 2 6 11 18 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -5 -5 -5 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 226 216 199 205 199 178 240 284 351 47 54 50 46 SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.4 30.1 29.9 28.8 27.9 27.2 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 163 164 165 165 171 167 164 152 142 134 133 131 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -52.4 -52.6 -51.4 -52.0 -51.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 8 6 8 5 6 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 83 85 85 84 83 80 76 75 76 75 74 73 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 54 51 46 40 30 -2 -9 -7 -8 -8 -9 -27 200 MB DIV 88 102 111 91 95 94 24 63 35 72 37 47 -12 700-850 TADV 3 6 8 10 8 14 13 6 0 0 -1 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 521 483 428 382 339 290 246 250 319 402 404 416 500 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.4 11.9 12.5 13.1 14.6 16.0 17.3 18.2 18.9 19.3 19.6 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 95.2 96.1 96.9 98.0 99.0 101.4 103.8 106.0 107.8 109.2 110.6 111.9 113.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 11 12 13 14 13 11 9 7 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 68 72 71 67 60 39 45 38 25 15 9 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 15. 26. 34. 39. 42. 44. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 19. 18. 18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982015 INVEST 07/10/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982015 INVEST 07/10/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##