* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE CP012015 07/10/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 42 47 50 50 50 47 47 46 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 42 47 50 50 50 47 47 46 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 32 34 36 38 41 43 44 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 6 6 6 9 8 7 14 14 22 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -4 -4 -3 -2 -4 -1 0 -1 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 237 203 214 259 286 302 282 253 266 247 250 252 266 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 147 147 147 147 147 145 144 145 146 145 145 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 59 58 59 58 59 58 61 64 65 63 62 61 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 112 106 105 105 102 86 78 69 59 49 20 19 -1 200 MB DIV 1 13 21 21 -2 34 43 71 57 62 0 17 -10 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 8 6 0 3 LAND (KM) 1706 1778 1854 1936 2023 2172 4176 4064 3962 3867 3704 3475 3262 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.7 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.0 13.9 14.8 15.6 16.6 17.8 18.8 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 171.6 172.6 173.6 174.8 176.0 178.0 180.2 182.0 183.7 185.6 187.8 189.7 191.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 35 47 56 53 62 60 59 58 57 60 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 23. 25. 27. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 20. 20. 20. 17. 17. 16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012015 ONE 07/10/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012015 ONE 07/10/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##