* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO CP022015 07/10/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 46 47 49 51 53 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 46 47 49 51 53 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 32 35 38 42 46 49 52 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 9 6 6 9 8 4 12 18 20 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -5 -2 -2 -8 -8 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 84 108 105 104 81 89 83 70 11 23 22 30 11 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 139 139 136 136 137 139 141 143 145 144 143 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 69 66 61 57 53 52 49 49 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 33 30 26 20 10 13 16 17 27 34 28 27 29 200 MB DIV 3 3 14 27 20 9 -25 -28 -38 -8 -24 -9 -17 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -2 1 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 793 750 711 659 619 663 807 939 1013 1112 1271 1421 1585 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.5 13.1 13.6 13.9 13.4 13.4 13.9 14.1 13.9 14.0 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 154.8 155.4 155.9 156.7 157.4 159.0 160.6 162.4 164.3 166.3 168.3 170.3 172.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 9 15 29 18 15 9 28 36 31 44 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 17. 19. 21. 23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022015 TWO 07/10/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 TWO 07/10/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##