* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELA EP042015 07/10/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 27 25 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 20 23 20 21 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 1 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 191 191 203 215 222 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.8 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 122 122 123 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 57 56 57 59 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -14 -15 -21 -15 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -2 0 4 11 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 8 0 -1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 654 587 528 443 366 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.3 22.6 22.7 22.7 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.1 150.0 150.9 152.0 153.1 155.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -10. -16. -23. -29. -35. -40. -44. -47. -47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042015 ELA 07/10/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042015 ELA 07/10/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##