* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982015 07/10/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 42 44 50 46 43 38 34 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 42 44 50 46 43 38 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 30 33 35 37 36 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 15 14 12 11 3 6 8 11 13 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -6 -5 -4 -2 -2 -2 -3 1 1 7 6 SHEAR DIR 188 181 189 187 179 210 237 286 36 40 33 26 359 SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.3 29.3 27.9 26.9 25.8 25.1 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 163 165 167 169 171 169 158 143 132 120 113 109 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -51.5 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 84 85 85 83 79 77 74 69 67 65 65 65 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 12 13 14 13 12 14 13 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 60 54 45 40 36 14 -17 5 -3 0 -14 -14 -8 200 MB DIV 106 116 95 98 81 62 34 47 48 52 23 6 -9 700-850 TADV 3 3 5 4 6 10 7 -1 -2 -3 0 -3 4 LAND (KM) 535 463 406 334 286 212 130 135 239 219 171 268 335 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.5 12.2 13.1 13.9 15.7 17.6 19.2 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.0 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 95.8 96.6 97.5 98.6 99.7 102.1 104.4 106.4 108.0 109.4 110.9 112.5 114.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 13 14 14 15 13 11 8 8 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 68 73 68 63 49 48 33 29 9 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 33. 34. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. 4. 2. 1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 17. 19. 25. 21. 18. 13. 9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982015 INVEST 07/10/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982015 INVEST 07/10/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##