* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HALOLA CP012015 07/11/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 44 47 52 57 59 57 54 52 52 50 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 44 47 52 57 59 57 54 52 52 50 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 43 46 50 54 59 62 64 64 65 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 4 4 8 8 9 6 13 18 12 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -2 0 -1 -1 -5 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 187 195 225 263 306 305 326 242 261 268 277 265 263 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 147 147 147 147 146 146 147 147 146 146 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 59 57 60 63 66 65 63 66 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 111 107 105 103 97 92 83 70 57 37 32 26 8 200 MB DIV 12 18 22 0 3 44 57 53 31 3 7 6 5 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 4 6 3 2 0 2 LAND (KM) 1800 1864 1930 2006 2087 2252 4092 3964 3841 3729 3616 3402 3198 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.1 13.9 14.8 15.6 16.4 17.3 18.1 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 172.6 173.6 174.5 175.6 176.7 178.9 181.1 183.1 185.1 187.1 189.3 191.2 193.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 34 35 43 52 55 55 63 60 61 60 62 64 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 12. 17. 22. 24. 22. 19. 17. 17. 15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012015 HALOLA 07/11/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 22% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012015 HALOLA 07/11/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##