* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO CP022015 07/11/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 33 35 39 43 45 47 50 52 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 33 35 39 43 45 47 50 52 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 32 34 37 40 42 46 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 8 10 8 6 5 14 16 18 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 0 0 -4 0 -2 -6 -6 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 105 109 113 96 92 109 81 3 16 25 43 39 26 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 136 135 135 135 136 139 142 144 144 143 143 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 62 59 54 50 50 49 48 47 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 34 34 24 15 14 29 25 32 35 30 24 26 26 200 MB DIV -1 10 18 15 17 -9 -36 -34 -6 -16 -11 -10 11 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 -2 -1 2 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 712 650 595 568 556 629 753 901 1021 1173 1309 1483 1674 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 155.2 155.8 156.4 157.2 157.9 159.5 161.2 163.2 165.3 167.3 169.1 171.2 173.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 17 31 32 10 8 16 37 29 32 48 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 15. 17. 20. 22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022015 TWO 07/11/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 TWO 07/11/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##