* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELA EP042015 07/11/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 25 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 25 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 27 26 24 21 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 19 19 16 16 21 23 27 31 29 35 31 27 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 0 2 4 2 7 10 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 189 205 219 217 219 241 232 244 248 245 268 304 342 SST (C) 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.9 25.7 25.1 24.1 23.1 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 120 121 120 120 120 120 121 122 121 114 103 92 81 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -54.1 -54.5 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 54 53 53 54 53 52 50 46 45 46 48 46 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 5 4 5 6 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -16 -25 -23 -18 -30 -17 -9 -17 -12 -30 -52 -75 200 MB DIV 3 9 -5 -6 18 13 22 29 30 17 4 -14 16 700-850 TADV 7 0 -3 0 1 -8 -2 12 -6 4 0 9 7 LAND (KM) 594 570 552 529 498 432 389 356 411 598 821 1014 1163 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.6 23.9 24.2 24.5 25.0 25.9 27.2 28.7 30.1 31.3 LONG(DEG W) 149.8 150.5 151.1 151.8 152.5 153.9 155.7 157.6 159.7 161.8 163.5 164.7 165.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 7 9 10 11 11 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -6. -12. -20. -25. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -8. -8. -10. -11. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -16. -17. -19. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -21. -26. -30. -39. -45. -51. -53. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042015 ELA 07/11/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042015 ELA 07/11/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##