* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982015 07/11/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 39 46 49 53 55 58 53 50 48 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 39 46 49 53 55 58 53 50 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 35 40 45 50 54 57 61 63 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 12 10 10 1 5 11 13 12 11 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -4 -1 0 0 3 0 0 -4 -3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 174 175 163 137 117 76 337 351 10 13 48 37 1 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.5 28.4 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 165 167 165 164 161 160 159 148 140 138 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -52.2 -52.6 -51.4 -52.1 -51.7 -52.7 -52.2 -53.1 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 8 6 8 6 7 6 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 85 84 81 79 79 78 77 79 78 79 79 76 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 13 11 11 12 14 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 58 49 40 37 30 -7 -8 -20 -11 -20 6 4 34 200 MB DIV 125 99 92 86 97 46 88 49 116 41 62 0 20 700-850 TADV 3 5 5 8 9 9 6 0 0 0 0 -3 0 LAND (KM) 445 405 368 376 390 389 354 376 403 416 513 535 538 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.3 12.8 13.1 13.4 14.5 15.6 15.9 15.9 16.4 17.6 18.1 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 96.5 97.7 98.9 99.9 100.9 103.2 105.1 105.9 106.3 107.4 109.6 110.5 110.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 11 10 11 12 8 3 4 9 9 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 72 68 61 51 40 47 48 46 43 35 21 14 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 34. 37. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -3. -1. 1. -2. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 21. 24. 28. 30. 33. 28. 25. 23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982015 INVEST 07/11/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 62% is 4.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 25% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982015 INVEST 07/11/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##