* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HALOLA CP012015 07/11/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 51 61 68 72 71 68 68 65 64 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 51 61 68 72 71 68 68 65 64 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 42 46 49 57 65 75 82 84 83 82 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 3 7 6 8 3 5 11 15 8 12 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 0 -2 -1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 170 317 311 333 336 334 50 280 273 279 268 291 262 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 149 149 148 148 147 146 147 147 147 148 150 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 58 59 62 65 66 64 64 63 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 14 13 13 13 12 12 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 107 107 110 106 101 102 92 81 65 54 51 27 6 200 MB DIV 20 22 2 6 27 37 59 42 28 5 13 -19 -18 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 1 1 -1 0 3 1 0 0 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1938 2013 2090 2157 2227 4112 3938 3789 3670 3559 3422 3195 2970 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.9 12.2 13.1 13.8 14.7 15.7 16.6 17.3 17.9 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 174.1 175.1 176.1 177.1 178.1 180.4 182.7 185.0 187.2 189.4 191.7 194.0 196.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 39 45 47 48 52 67 64 66 65 66 67 71 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 26. 33. 38. 36. 33. 33. 30. 29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012015 HALOLA 07/11/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 61% is 4.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 45% is 5.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 28% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012015 HALOLA 07/11/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##