* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO CP022015 07/11/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 35 37 42 46 48 51 55 57 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 35 37 42 46 48 51 55 57 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 31 31 33 35 37 41 45 50 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 10 10 9 9 8 12 16 13 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -4 0 2 -3 -4 0 -3 -8 -7 -3 -8 SHEAR DIR 110 105 109 98 112 99 109 64 50 48 71 50 47 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 135 135 135 135 138 140 142 145 144 144 144 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 65 66 64 61 58 54 51 51 50 47 46 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 7 7 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 37 30 22 23 31 28 29 34 36 30 29 31 26 200 MB DIV 5 17 22 31 26 -25 -25 -32 -12 -5 -8 -6 6 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 1 -1 0 -1 3 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 633 584 549 561 586 715 866 954 1055 1208 1403 1596 1783 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 155.7 156.5 157.2 158.0 158.8 160.6 162.4 164.3 166.1 168.2 170.5 172.7 174.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 18 32 32 17 8 10 30 33 25 47 25 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 18. 21. 25. 27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022015 TWO 07/11/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 TWO 07/11/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##