* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELA EP042015 07/11/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 21 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 19 24 27 26 35 37 34 39 33 28 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 1 1 3 2 4 9 -2 -2 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 205 220 221 226 240 240 243 244 255 277 289 327 337 SST (C) 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.9 25.7 25.1 24.8 23.7 23.0 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 122 122 121 121 123 121 114 111 98 91 84 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 52 55 56 55 55 55 52 50 50 50 46 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 7 7 6 5 5 6 7 6 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -23 -18 -10 -14 -20 -5 -7 -16 -20 -21 -51 -78 200 MB DIV 9 0 -4 21 29 5 42 13 15 1 0 5 0 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 3 1 -7 6 13 6 5 3 4 4 LAND (KM) 535 489 458 412 384 363 334 419 623 843 1016 1153 1285 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.7 23.1 23.5 23.8 24.4 25.0 25.9 27.1 28.3 29.3 30.1 31.0 LONG(DEG W) 150.6 151.5 152.3 153.2 154.1 156.0 158.1 160.4 162.6 164.6 166.0 167.1 168.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 9 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -9. -17. -27. -33. -36. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -12. -17. -22. -27. -35. -42. -48. -51. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042015 ELA 07/11/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042015 ELA 07/11/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##