* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972015 07/11/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 40 46 54 61 64 64 61 60 59 57 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 40 46 54 61 64 64 61 60 59 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 37 43 47 49 50 51 50 47 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 13 9 2 11 6 9 11 11 10 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 0 -5 -1 -2 5 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 53 36 23 25 41 216 179 124 147 175 189 172 163 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.7 27.5 26.9 26.2 25.8 25.5 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 150 148 147 142 141 138 132 124 120 116 116 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 68 71 72 73 73 68 63 57 54 51 53 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 13 14 15 16 16 16 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 94 88 87 95 108 106 102 81 91 86 114 124 126 200 MB DIV 76 78 91 117 130 128 80 19 32 10 12 25 17 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -2 0 0 -1 0 1 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1917 1876 1836 1809 1786 1796 1864 1942 2060 2175 2277 2142 2029 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 30 22 16 13 12 13 30 19 13 7 6 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 465 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 21. 29. 36. 39. 39. 36. 35. 34. 32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 07/11/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST 07/11/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##