* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982015 07/11/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 49 52 65 65 64 67 67 67 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 49 52 65 65 64 67 67 67 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 38 41 46 50 54 57 58 57 54 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 10 10 9 7 10 8 8 12 10 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -3 -3 -3 -1 -3 -2 -2 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 184 169 163 160 184 246 304 324 335 350 333 323 316 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.5 30.4 30.2 29.9 28.8 28.0 27.2 26.4 26.1 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 167 172 170 168 164 151 143 135 127 123 119 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 84 82 80 79 78 77 75 72 68 69 67 65 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 12 12 14 14 14 13 19 20 21 25 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 47 39 36 32 18 -7 0 14 21 11 36 41 52 200 MB DIV 96 86 89 92 90 44 45 61 53 55 41 34 14 700-850 TADV 6 4 5 7 6 9 -2 1 -2 -2 -5 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 363 310 278 252 227 183 172 223 279 328 285 333 401 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 12 9 7 6 7 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 66 63 50 42 44 40 35 25 14 9 3 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 28. 30. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. 9. 9. 11. 17. 18. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 19. 22. 35. 35. 34. 37. 37. 38. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982015 INVEST 07/11/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 57% is 4.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982015 INVEST 07/11/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##