* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HALOLA CP012015 07/11/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 50 54 61 66 67 64 62 60 59 57 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 50 54 61 66 67 64 62 60 59 57 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 49 52 57 63 68 72 73 74 75 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 5 5 9 14 4 9 15 7 12 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 0 -3 -2 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 327 325 340 316 322 346 301 280 268 285 259 268 284 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 149 148 147 146 146 147 147 148 149 151 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 57 57 58 58 62 63 65 65 66 68 65 65 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 14 13 13 12 11 9 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 105 106 100 94 97 97 89 78 59 52 39 16 10 200 MB DIV 25 16 6 15 31 50 48 43 28 29 15 -13 -31 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 2 0 -2 5 4 0 2 0 1 -4 LAND (KM) 2014 2084 2157 2233 2313 4026 3879 3729 3578 3467 3343 3109 2870 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.5 11.7 12.1 12.5 13.4 14.3 15.1 15.8 16.6 17.4 18.1 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 175.0 176.0 177.0 178.1 179.2 181.5 183.7 186.0 188.4 190.6 192.6 194.9 197.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 42 44 43 47 59 66 63 66 67 67 68 75 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 26. 27. 24. 22. 20. 19. 17. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012015 HALOLA 07/11/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012015 HALOLA 07/11/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##