* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HALOLA CP012015 07/11/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 55 60 64 71 75 75 70 66 63 63 59 V (KT) LAND 45 51 55 60 64 71 75 75 70 66 63 63 59 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 56 62 67 75 81 84 84 81 79 79 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 10 14 12 9 7 11 6 10 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 -2 -2 -4 0 2 1 0 -1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 10 356 351 344 345 8 302 280 281 256 274 226 240 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 150 149 148 146 147 147 148 148 150 151 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 64 67 68 66 66 67 65 62 61 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 15 15 15 14 12 11 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 96 89 84 88 100 108 89 82 71 68 46 31 15 200 MB DIV 28 16 17 27 32 60 49 36 35 24 13 7 -46 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 0 -1 0 1 0 3 3 -1 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 2132 2210 2292 2364 4051 3907 3748 3616 3499 3398 3304 3056 2809 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.5 11.9 12.8 13.8 14.7 15.5 16.3 17.1 18.0 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 175.8 176.9 178.0 179.1 180.2 182.4 184.8 187.0 189.1 191.2 193.4 195.7 198.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 37 34 34 49 68 68 68 71 70 68 72 77 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 442 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 15. 19. 26. 30. 30. 25. 21. 18. 18. 14. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012015 HALOLA 07/11/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 22% is 5.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012015 HALOLA 07/11/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##