* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052015 07/11/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 50 64 69 76 80 82 88 92 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 50 64 69 76 80 82 88 92 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 37 41 45 49 54 57 58 58 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 4 4 7 11 11 9 7 7 6 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -4 -1 -3 -2 -9 0 1 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 149 138 171 201 218 284 312 344 350 340 342 301 307 SST (C) 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.6 28.8 28.2 27.5 26.8 26.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 166 169 170 169 168 166 159 150 144 137 129 126 126 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 78 77 77 72 71 69 67 66 67 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 14 14 15 20 20 26 29 31 35 39 850 MB ENV VOR 32 22 4 0 0 -12 7 26 25 45 55 87 100 200 MB DIV 79 80 84 68 68 44 75 39 51 56 50 36 33 700-850 TADV 5 4 4 5 4 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 308 289 272 246 215 214 198 244 289 355 300 292 328 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.1 14.7 15.4 16.1 17.1 18.1 18.7 19.1 19.6 20.2 20.4 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 99.0 100.1 101.2 102.2 103.2 105.0 106.3 107.3 108.1 109.0 110.1 110.9 111.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 9 7 5 5 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 61 50 40 42 44 38 33 23 16 9 7 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 30. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 13. 13. 20. 26. 29. 34. 38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 34. 39. 46. 50. 52. 58. 62. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 FIVE 07/11/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 56% is 4.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 FIVE 07/11/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##