* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922015 07/12/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 34 42 46 48 46 42 35 26 19 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 34 42 46 48 41 36 29 25 18 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 27 30 33 33 33 30 34 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 17 17 16 21 25 25 28 36 53 52 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -5 -7 -4 -4 0 0 -2 -1 -5 1 0 SHEAR DIR 260 288 316 308 297 240 255 272 287 267 264 261 256 SST (C) 27.0 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.2 25.5 18.4 11.5 12.1 9.2 5.4 6.5 POT. INT. (KT) 122 125 126 127 127 127 111 77 68 69 67 65 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 101 102 103 104 106 94 71 66 67 66 N/A 63 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.5 -55.6 -55.4 -55.2 -55.3 -55.1 -55.6 -55.5 -54.6 -53.4 -52.7 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 4 5 5 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 38 38 42 45 49 57 60 65 68 65 59 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 7 9 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -35 -22 -20 -26 -7 -21 -25 36 18 31 86 85 200 MB DIV -38 -21 -3 23 32 16 4 41 34 37 25 20 29 700-850 TADV -10 -4 -2 5 4 12 21 34 53 34 11 27 43 LAND (KM) 54 93 134 178 221 312 295 171 -19 33 -11 165 349 LAT (DEG N) 35.6 35.3 34.9 35.1 35.2 36.5 38.6 41.1 43.9 46.7 49.6 52.4 54.9 LONG(DEG W) 75.3 75.0 74.6 74.1 73.5 72.3 70.5 68.5 65.8 61.4 56.8 53.3 51.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 5 6 10 14 16 19 21 19 16 13 HEAT CONTENT 2 8 14 13 14 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 12. 15. 18. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 7. 2. -2. -7. -13. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 22. 26. 28. 26. 22. 15. 6. -1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922015 INVEST 07/12/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922015 INVEST 07/12/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922015 INVEST 07/12/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)