* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HALOLA CP012015 07/12/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 54 56 63 68 68 66 63 63 65 66 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 54 56 63 68 68 66 63 63 65 66 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 50 52 54 59 63 68 70 69 68 68 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 11 15 19 9 6 9 8 14 9 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 2 3 1 -3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 2 329 339 338 351 16 310 274 250 249 273 218 230 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 149 149 147 147 147 148 148 149 151 152 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 57 59 62 66 66 68 65 67 69 67 65 63 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 16 15 15 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR 93 86 84 91 109 108 86 81 72 71 68 49 44 200 MB DIV 21 25 31 19 53 68 65 50 45 34 28 -9 -11 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 -2 -5 0 3 5 2 3 3 2 5 LAND (KM) 2189 2266 2346 2432 3979 3802 3642 3487 3365 3262 3192 2964 2721 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.6 13.4 14.2 15.1 16.0 16.9 17.8 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 176.7 177.8 178.8 180.0 181.1 183.4 185.7 188.1 190.4 192.7 194.8 197.1 199.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 34 43 63 70 72 72 73 74 73 80 80 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 18. 23. 23. 21. 18. 18. 20. 21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012015 HALOLA 07/12/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012015 HALOLA 07/12/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##