* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IUNE CP022015 07/12/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 42 43 48 54 58 59 61 63 65 64 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 42 43 48 54 58 59 61 63 65 64 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 42 45 48 53 59 66 73 78 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 5 7 9 7 9 6 12 12 16 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -3 -5 0 -2 -5 -5 -5 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 128 115 128 119 121 110 102 67 54 48 40 22 350 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 134 135 136 139 143 145 144 143 144 144 144 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 56 53 51 52 52 50 51 50 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 6 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 32 36 38 41 39 39 46 46 30 29 22 23 17 200 MB DIV 10 6 6 -9 -10 -20 -16 -3 -5 -3 1 -6 -7 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 1 0 0 2 2 1 0 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 537 591 652 716 785 909 1107 1267 1411 1591 1798 1944 2044 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.1 14.7 13.8 13.5 13.7 13.5 13.0 12.8 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 158.6 159.5 160.3 161.2 162.0 163.8 165.8 167.8 169.9 171.9 173.9 175.4 176.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 10 10 10 10 10 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 9 7 7 9 28 45 40 37 31 28 52 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 18. 20. 21. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 13. 19. 23. 24. 26. 28. 30. 29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022015 IUNE 07/12/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 IUNE 07/12/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##