* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052015 07/12/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 46 59 70 76 84 87 91 98 99 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 46 59 70 76 84 87 91 98 99 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 39 45 49 53 56 58 60 61 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 1 1 4 12 17 12 10 10 3 2 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -3 -4 -4 -10 -3 -3 -5 -4 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 89 90 130 279 307 305 326 320 337 316 255 166 80 SST (C) 30.1 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.6 29.0 28.4 27.8 27.1 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 166 170 170 168 166 164 159 152 146 140 132 130 131 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -51.4 -50.9 -51.0 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 8 6 8 6 7 6 7 5 6 700-500 MB RH 79 79 81 81 79 78 73 72 74 72 70 68 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 17 16 20 24 26 31 35 36 42 43 850 MB ENV VOR 19 4 0 -1 -6 -6 19 23 49 41 75 88 121 200 MB DIV 107 84 61 56 61 86 97 74 69 48 58 46 32 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 2 0 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 317 298 279 278 252 255 245 285 337 393 355 359 411 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.4 15.9 17.0 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.7 19.8 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 99.7 100.7 101.6 102.7 103.7 105.5 106.5 107.4 108.3 109.2 110.1 111.0 111.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 12 11 8 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 54 44 39 43 43 41 35 26 18 11 8 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 12. 17. 21. 28. 33. 37. 44. 44. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 29. 40. 46. 54. 57. 61. 68. 69. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 FIVE 07/12/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 4.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 39% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 FIVE 07/12/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##