* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972015 07/12/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 36 40 41 40 37 34 33 31 30 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 36 40 41 40 37 34 33 31 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 29 29 27 25 23 21 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 5 1 3 6 8 10 15 18 12 15 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -4 0 -4 -2 -2 -4 -2 -5 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 9 355 76 133 163 185 192 196 199 200 194 199 183 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.5 25.7 25.4 25.0 24.5 24.2 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 143 140 138 135 128 118 114 111 106 102 99 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 77 75 74 71 70 65 59 57 55 55 52 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 104 115 110 97 86 62 53 43 58 57 59 67 63 200 MB DIV 121 98 102 107 96 19 -5 -2 -9 -1 -4 13 10 700-850 TADV -5 -2 0 -2 -5 1 -1 -4 -2 -1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1777 1758 1746 1738 1734 1766 1821 1868 1904 1968 2079 2153 2127 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 9 7 8 9 7 4 3 6 6 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 9 7 8 11 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 15. 16. 15. 12. 9. 8. 6. 5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 07/12/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST 07/12/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##