* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922015 07/12/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 31 36 43 46 48 45 38 30 22 DIS V (KT) LAND 20 24 28 31 36 43 46 48 42 34 31 23 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 27 30 31 29 32 33 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 16 18 19 27 25 30 32 48 55 57 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -7 -3 -1 -3 -2 -4 -1 -2 -1 0 4 SHEAR DIR 278 307 303 290 275 242 269 274 270 261 264 253 252 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.8 22.1 13.9 12.0 10.5 8.3 5.4 6.5 POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 126 126 125 123 88 69 69 68 66 64 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 100 101 102 103 103 78 66 67 66 65 N/A 62 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.7 -55.5 -55.3 -55.3 -55.1 -55.2 -55.5 -54.9 -53.9 -53.2 -52.3 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 4 5 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 38 41 44 48 52 58 63 68 66 61 61 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 8 10 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -19 -21 -27 -10 -17 -35 24 48 28 68 97 105 200 MB DIV -20 -6 20 32 22 34 6 66 28 40 41 20 29 700-850 TADV -6 -2 5 3 7 19 30 60 -2 30 22 33 45 LAND (KM) 155 188 221 252 283 329 208 178 4 49 39 210 343 LAT (DEG N) 35.4 35.3 35.2 35.6 36.0 37.6 39.9 42.5 45.1 47.7 50.3 52.8 54.9 LONG(DEG W) 74.2 73.9 73.5 73.1 72.7 71.4 69.7 68.2 64.9 59.9 55.5 52.7 51.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 4 5 7 12 13 16 19 20 17 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 12 14 15 12 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 11. 6. 2. -4. -10. -17. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -16. -19. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 23. 26. 28. 25. 18. 10. 2. -6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922015 INVEST 07/12/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922015 INVEST 07/12/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922015 INVEST 07/12/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED