* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HALOLA CP012015 07/12/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 59 63 69 70 68 67 65 67 68 69 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 59 63 69 70 68 67 65 67 68 69 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 55 57 60 65 69 71 72 71 72 74 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 13 15 10 9 4 8 5 8 3 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 0 0 -1 4 5 3 -1 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 328 333 339 354 10 316 266 264 211 260 204 292 351 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 148 148 146 147 147 148 148 150 151 153 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 61 64 65 64 63 63 66 65 63 61 60 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 17 16 15 16 15 16 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR 92 90 96 105 107 87 80 64 71 54 38 17 12 200 MB DIV 43 36 25 47 65 52 56 35 31 -8 -25 -66 -90 700-850 TADV 1 1 -1 -4 -1 3 2 0 3 4 0 2 1 LAND (KM) 2237 2320 2407 4007 3920 3750 3597 3470 3350 3257 3064 2826 2614 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.4 14.3 15.1 15.8 16.7 17.6 18.4 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 177.6 178.8 179.9 181.0 182.2 184.5 186.9 189.1 191.3 193.6 196.0 198.3 200.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 36 47 66 69 69 70 71 73 71 76 80 77 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -1. -2. 0. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 20. 18. 17. 15. 17. 18. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012015 HALOLA 07/12/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012015 HALOLA 07/12/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##