* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IUNE CP022015 07/12/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 40 44 48 52 54 56 58 61 62 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 40 44 48 52 54 56 58 61 62 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 36 36 38 41 46 53 60 67 73 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 10 10 10 9 6 9 11 14 12 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -5 -1 0 -2 -3 -4 -6 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 128 127 120 127 130 103 92 45 67 53 69 31 313 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 136 137 141 144 145 144 144 145 145 146 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 60 58 58 54 52 53 53 53 54 54 50 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 37 40 38 39 40 42 54 40 38 32 27 20 16 200 MB DIV 4 13 5 3 -4 -35 -11 -12 3 -9 -3 -28 -14 700-850 TADV 2 1 2 2 0 1 3 0 1 0 0 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 562 637 718 805 862 992 1179 1364 1543 1723 1912 2065 2198 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.4 13.8 13.3 12.9 12.7 12.6 12.6 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 159.4 160.4 161.3 162.2 163.0 164.8 166.9 168.9 170.8 172.8 174.9 176.6 178.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 10 10 10 9 10 9 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 8 10 17 39 40 36 33 25 45 57 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 19. 21. 23. 26. 27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022015 IUNE 07/12/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 IUNE 07/12/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##