* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELA EP042015 07/12/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 19 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 30 32 33 36 41 43 44 38 32 26 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 4 3 0 3 -2 3 -2 -2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 240 247 250 247 251 251 255 274 276 286 301 345 345 SST (C) 25.9 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.2 25.7 25.5 25.4 25.2 25.0 24.6 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 122 123 126 126 120 117 114 112 110 106 100 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 55 52 48 45 48 45 44 40 41 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 4 4 3 4 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -2 -3 -1 -6 -2 -2 -6 -10 -29 -54 -74 -28 200 MB DIV 29 21 22 31 25 6 11 0 -10 1 -2 -8 53 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -7 -2 0 11 7 0 -3 0 -1 2 3 LAND (KM) 274 244 249 221 210 292 479 645 748 829 895 976 1094 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.0 23.3 23.6 23.9 24.7 25.6 26.4 26.9 27.2 27.5 28.0 28.8 LONG(DEG W) 154.3 155.3 156.3 157.4 158.4 160.5 162.5 164.0 164.9 165.7 166.3 166.9 167.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 6 4 3 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 2 1 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -4. -15. -27. -36. -41. -42. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -8. -18. -26. -33. -37. -40. -39. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042015 ELA 07/12/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042015 ELA 07/12/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##