* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/12/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 55 60 74 83 88 92 93 90 94 91 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 55 60 74 83 88 92 93 90 94 91 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 49 52 55 60 64 66 67 66 65 64 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 5 6 11 13 14 13 9 6 5 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -3 -3 -6 -5 -3 -3 -3 -4 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 246 261 262 288 295 306 321 325 335 302 305 49 53 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.2 30.0 29.2 28.5 27.9 27.3 26.8 26.7 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 169 166 167 164 155 147 141 135 129 129 132 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 79 80 81 81 79 74 71 73 73 72 73 73 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 16 17 19 20 26 30 33 38 41 39 43 42 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -3 -3 -1 -4 11 21 33 45 53 80 88 99 200 MB DIV 77 60 66 79 79 96 70 86 66 75 57 57 35 700-850 TADV -2 2 1 0 -1 2 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 281 262 252 225 226 235 271 335 364 369 326 357 454 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 15.0 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.3 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.0 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 100.5 101.6 102.6 103.6 104.5 105.7 107.1 108.2 108.9 109.6 110.5 111.5 112.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 10 8 7 7 5 4 5 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 46 40 45 43 40 39 29 20 13 9 7 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 23. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 7. 17. 23. 28. 35. 39. 38. 43. 41. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 34. 43. 48. 52. 53. 50. 54. 51. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/12/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 73% is 5.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 55% is 6.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 42% is 7.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 34% is 7.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/12/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##