* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922015 07/12/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 27 32 36 43 46 46 43 36 34 27 17 V (KT) LAND 20 24 27 32 36 43 46 46 39 33 31 24 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 26 29 30 31 31 31 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 18 21 19 26 24 29 43 55 43 27 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -4 -2 -3 0 0 -3 -2 -1 6 3 3 SHEAR DIR 309 305 292 280 248 254 275 288 255 244 229 228 243 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 24.9 17.7 11.7 13.0 9.5 5.6 6.4 7.3 POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 126 125 125 105 74 68 70 67 64 63 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 100 102 103 104 90 69 66 68 66 N/A 62 60 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.5 -55.3 -55.4 -55.5 -55.3 -55.5 -54.7 -53.2 -52.1 -51.7 -50.6 -48.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 43 47 51 56 59 67 70 62 61 57 49 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 10 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -23 -27 -9 0 -15 -8 77 53 77 120 106 71 200 MB DIV -6 23 31 11 18 0 32 47 42 34 31 26 35 700-850 TADV -1 7 4 7 9 18 39 41 25 0 12 8 30 LAND (KM) 198 229 263 295 322 272 94 57 64 32 62 278 412 LAT (DEG N) 35.1 35.3 35.4 36.1 36.7 38.8 41.3 44.1 47.0 50.0 52.8 55.1 56.6 LONG(DEG W) 73.8 73.4 73.0 72.6 72.1 70.6 69.4 67.4 63.0 58.2 54.9 53.1 52.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 7 10 13 14 18 21 20 15 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 19 15 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 11. 7. 1. -6. -12. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 1. 5. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 16. 23. 26. 26. 23. 16. 14. 7. -3. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922015 INVEST 07/12/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922015 INVEST 07/12/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922015 INVEST 07/12/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED