* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HALOLA CP012015 07/12/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 57 59 63 64 60 59 60 62 64 67 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 57 59 63 64 60 59 60 62 64 67 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 54 55 57 60 61 61 60 60 60 62 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 5 8 10 13 7 10 8 7 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 2 0 0 1 3 4 3 -1 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 331 336 340 339 311 283 270 252 242 261 251 283 219 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 148 147 146 147 147 147 148 149 150 153 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 61 62 63 65 64 63 63 65 63 62 57 59 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 18 17 19 18 16 16 16 16 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 94 94 98 98 91 80 66 55 47 30 -3 -21 -10 200 MB DIV 54 28 42 56 46 67 34 45 21 -6 -32 -65 -111 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -1 1 5 5 4 6 5 2 5 2 LAND (KM) 2303 2378 4048 3964 3880 3741 3596 3490 3400 3241 3001 2747 2494 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.3 14.1 14.9 15.8 16.7 17.8 19.0 20.0 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 178.6 179.7 180.7 181.9 183.0 185.1 187.4 189.5 191.6 193.5 195.4 197.7 200.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 41 52 68 68 67 68 69 69 69 69 72 57 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 9. 13. 14. 10. 9. 10. 12. 14. 17. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012015 HALOLA 07/12/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012015 HALOLA 07/12/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##