* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IUNE CP022015 07/12/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 37 39 42 44 48 50 52 55 54 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 37 39 42 44 48 50 52 55 54 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 37 40 44 49 55 61 67 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 11 11 8 5 4 11 10 14 10 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -6 -6 0 -1 -3 -4 -5 -7 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 104 111 125 139 130 125 57 47 60 55 58 32 273 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 137 138 140 143 145 144 144 145 146 146 145 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 58 57 54 51 51 50 52 50 52 50 47 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 40 43 43 40 45 48 37 36 33 25 18 18 200 MB DIV 5 6 6 2 -17 -17 -12 6 -6 -12 -30 -40 -25 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 0 -1 1 2 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 621 708 798 870 934 1086 1274 1449 1631 1813 2002 2138 2229 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.1 14.9 14.7 14.5 14.1 13.5 13.1 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.3 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 160.1 161.1 162.0 163.0 163.9 165.9 167.9 169.8 171.7 173.7 175.7 177.2 178.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 10 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 11 18 31 40 36 33 27 25 51 48 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 15. 17. 20. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022015 IUNE 07/12/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 IUNE 07/12/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##