* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELA EP042015 07/12/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 23 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 23 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 33 34 39 41 43 48 40 41 27 23 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 3 1 1 -2 2 -3 0 -4 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 246 247 246 251 254 249 264 278 290 284 324 344 334 SST (C) 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.0 25.6 25.6 25.4 25.2 25.0 24.7 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 125 126 127 123 118 117 114 112 110 108 102 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.6 -53.9 -54.6 -55.0 -55.1 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 57 58 56 53 50 47 47 48 46 45 42 42 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 5 4 -6 -10 -5 -10 -1 -14 -39 -54 -40 -10 200 MB DIV 24 27 31 16 1 14 0 7 0 8 5 10 31 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -1 1 11 5 -5 0 -2 0 2 7 LAND (KM) 202 200 180 175 212 398 570 710 785 845 905 994 1125 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.0 23.3 23.7 24.1 25.1 25.9 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.7 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 155.6 156.7 157.7 158.8 159.8 161.9 163.5 164.7 165.5 166.1 166.7 167.4 168.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 9 7 5 3 3 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 4 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -6. -17. -30. -39. -43. -43. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. -5. -13. -22. -29. -34. -35. -34. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042015 ELA 07/12/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042015 ELA 07/12/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##