* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/12/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 52 58 70 76 84 81 83 82 87 84 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 52 58 70 76 84 81 83 82 87 84 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 47 50 54 59 65 70 72 71 70 68 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 8 12 13 11 11 6 9 6 4 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -4 -6 -5 -6 -2 -4 -4 -3 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 252 217 254 276 288 304 319 323 343 307 360 40 61 SST (C) 30.5 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.7 28.9 28.2 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 167 167 166 161 152 144 137 133 130 129 128 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.1 -51.4 -50.7 -51.2 -50.9 -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 8 7 7 6 7 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 78 81 79 78 78 71 70 70 70 70 69 68 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 18 19 21 26 27 32 32 37 36 41 40 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -12 -4 -2 -3 11 29 45 35 69 84 116 110 200 MB DIV 60 82 108 63 63 76 58 89 68 52 49 52 6 700-850 TADV 6 8 0 -1 1 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 235 226 204 204 222 248 302 351 395 366 349 376 455 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 101.3 102.2 103.2 104.1 105.0 106.3 107.6 108.6 109.3 110.0 111.0 112.2 113.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 40 40 40 37 37 34 24 16 12 9 5 10 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 23. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 16. 23. 23. 29. 30. 36. 34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 18. 30. 36. 44. 41. 43. 42. 47. 44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/12/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 70% is 5.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 43% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 27% is 6.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/12/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##