* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922015 07/12/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 43 47 47 42 39 36 35 33 29 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 43 47 47 42 34 34 33 31 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 35 35 34 30 33 35 39 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 23 23 24 32 31 32 29 38 39 27 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -5 -3 -1 -5 -1 -3 0 0 2 3 3 -5 SHEAR DIR 300 293 281 258 241 252 264 274 252 232 203 225 257 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 24.0 16.2 11.4 9.5 6.2 5.7 6.4 6.4 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 125 127 127 100 73 68 67 65 62 59 58 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 102 104 106 107 87 69 66 65 64 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.5 -55.6 -55.9 -55.9 -55.8 -55.8 -55.4 -54.5 -52.5 -51.3 -50.0 -48.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 43 47 50 51 56 61 70 72 69 55 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 9 9 8 9 13 17 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -23 -12 -14 -12 -55 -48 -1 21 92 124 100 77 200 MB DIV 14 19 18 26 33 -2 33 22 45 48 22 23 -9 700-850 TADV 5 5 7 12 15 30 33 7 4 4 9 27 -1 LAND (KM) 317 381 441 488 467 403 192 62 -68 122 238 311 300 LAT (DEG N) 35.4 35.8 36.1 36.9 37.6 39.7 42.3 45.2 48.2 51.3 53.7 54.9 54.8 LONG(DEG W) 72.4 71.6 70.9 69.8 68.8 66.4 63.8 60.2 56.6 53.8 52.4 52.1 52.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 9 11 13 15 18 19 19 15 9 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 22 25 19 21 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 12. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 9. 3. -3. -8. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 3. 6. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 22. 22. 17. 14. 11. 10. 8. 4. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922015 INVEST 07/12/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922015 INVEST 07/12/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922015 INVEST 07/12/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED