* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HALOLA CP012015 07/12/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 58 60 62 63 60 57 60 61 68 66 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 58 60 62 63 60 57 60 61 68 66 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 52 53 54 55 55 54 54 56 58 61 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 7 9 11 11 13 10 11 11 14 7 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 0 0 2 5 4 1 -1 -2 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 320 328 329 300 279 249 249 243 250 243 282 241 304 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 147 146 146 147 147 147 148 149 149 152 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -51.9 -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 11 12 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 61 62 65 64 63 61 63 61 59 54 50 51 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 19 19 18 19 17 16 18 19 24 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 99 105 107 97 83 75 60 36 26 7 -16 -12 -17 200 MB DIV 40 56 67 48 56 51 25 21 -5 -18 -61 -46 -79 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 1 4 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 0 8 LAND (KM) 2351 4080 4007 3929 3854 3714 3602 3521 3329 3087 2846 2639 2447 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.2 15.0 15.9 16.9 18.0 19.0 19.9 20.6 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 179.6 180.7 181.7 182.8 183.9 186.1 188.2 190.2 192.2 194.3 196.5 198.5 200.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 51 67 66 65 66 66 66 65 66 68 59 46 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -4. -1. 1. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 10. 12. 13. 10. 7. 10. 11. 18. 16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012015 HALOLA 07/12/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012015 HALOLA 07/12/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##