* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IUNE CP022015 07/12/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 30 33 37 40 44 45 48 49 50 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 30 33 37 40 44 45 48 49 50 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 27 27 29 32 37 43 48 54 58 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 9 7 6 3 10 13 17 13 9 4 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -6 -4 0 1 -2 -3 -5 -7 -5 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 97 110 124 132 122 61 43 64 46 52 8 302 286 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 138 139 142 144 146 144 143 143 144 146 147 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 59 54 52 52 52 51 49 48 48 46 47 45 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 33 34 38 34 33 45 34 30 32 28 26 19 19 200 MB DIV -9 2 -3 -24 -32 -15 -11 -10 -29 -18 -36 -5 -12 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 -2 -1 3 2 0 0 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 691 785 883 954 1028 1181 1350 1512 1680 1829 1947 2114 2313 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.2 13.9 13.4 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 160.6 161.6 162.6 163.6 164.6 166.4 168.6 170.7 172.7 174.4 175.7 177.5 179.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 9 7 8 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 9 14 25 39 45 37 34 20 29 56 60 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 10. 14. 15. 18. 19. 20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022015 IUNE 07/12/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 IUNE 07/12/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##