* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/12/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 58 64 69 83 86 91 88 93 92 89 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 58 64 69 83 86 91 88 93 92 89 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 53 56 61 65 70 72 73 73 71 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 14 11 13 12 7 11 8 4 2 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -5 -7 -7 -2 -5 -3 -5 1 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 230 275 290 280 294 308 322 350 334 351 356 54 62 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.4 28.9 28.4 27.8 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 166 165 163 157 151 146 140 134 132 130 129 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -50.7 -51.0 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 7 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 81 80 78 81 78 74 74 73 74 71 71 66 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 19 22 23 23 30 32 37 37 40 41 41 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -12 -6 2 15 18 33 51 59 76 104 108 109 200 MB DIV 76 107 73 63 82 44 87 60 62 35 67 34 26 700-850 TADV 5 0 0 1 2 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 264 247 243 266 294 321 371 408 445 404 396 440 527 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.4 104.3 105.1 105.9 107.1 108.1 108.9 109.6 110.6 111.7 112.9 114.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 5 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 40 41 39 40 40 33 24 19 14 9 3 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 19. 19. 19. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 6. 9. 10. 21. 25. 32. 31. 37. 38. 36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 38. 41. 46. 43. 48. 47. 45. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/12/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/12/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##