* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062015 07/12/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 44 45 45 43 40 38 35 34 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 44 45 45 43 40 38 35 34 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 37 38 37 34 31 28 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 3 6 5 7 9 11 15 13 12 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 -2 -4 0 -1 2 -2 0 -4 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 26 63 115 116 135 173 177 178 187 179 184 178 173 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.2 26.3 25.5 25.2 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 145 144 141 135 125 117 114 112 112 112 111 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 67 63 57 58 57 53 52 49 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 15 16 15 15 16 16 15 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 116 110 105 98 98 92 72 65 63 73 69 72 66 200 MB DIV 95 99 75 38 29 35 0 5 -10 -1 11 -4 5 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 1 1 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 1877 1887 1901 1920 1929 2012 2088 2195 2158 1997 1859 1782 1745 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.6 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 125.6 126.3 126.9 127.6 128.3 129.9 131.3 132.9 134.5 136.0 137.3 138.0 138.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 5 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 22 23 17 11 8 4 4 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 15. 15. 13. 10. 8. 5. 4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062015 SIX 07/12/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 SIX 07/12/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##