* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922015 07/13/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 38 42 42 39 35 33 33 35 31 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 38 42 42 39 31 33 32 35 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 29 29 32 34 36 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 23 29 31 31 29 32 40 42 33 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -1 -3 -1 -3 -2 0 1 0 4 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 299 279 253 237 241 248 277 267 253 218 185 183 237 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.3 27.3 26.4 20.0 13.1 9.9 8.8 5.7 5.5 5.4 6.3 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 128 129 119 81 69 67 66 63 61 60 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 104 107 108 101 74 67 66 64 N/A N/A N/A 61 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.5 -55.7 -55.8 -55.7 -56.1 -55.6 -55.2 -53.9 -52.1 -50.6 -50.3 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 50 54 55 57 61 65 74 75 71 58 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 13 18 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -7 -7 -12 -33 -51 -6 22 63 122 123 77 68 200 MB DIV 16 10 27 29 10 15 23 56 51 55 35 11 -48 700-850 TADV 5 3 11 15 13 21 26 15 1 5 15 1 -2 LAND (KM) 334 401 449 450 411 289 116 72 -7 78 135 101 -64 LAT (DEG N) 35.5 36.1 36.6 37.5 38.4 40.9 43.6 46.5 49.6 52.4 54.4 54.5 52.9 LONG(DEG W) 72.2 71.4 70.5 69.3 68.2 65.8 62.9 59.3 56.0 54.6 55.1 56.1 56.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 13 14 17 18 19 16 12 6 5 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 22 8 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 10. 11. 9. 3. -3. -8. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -22. -26. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 17. 17. 14. 10. 8. 8. 10. 6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922015 INVEST 07/13/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922015 INVEST 07/13/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922015 INVEST 07/13/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED