* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IUNE CP022015 07/13/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 22 23 26 29 33 37 41 42 46 50 V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 22 23 26 29 33 37 41 42 46 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 20 19 19 20 22 26 30 35 41 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 7 4 4 2 5 13 12 14 7 4 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -2 2 4 -2 -4 -4 -4 -5 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 116 135 148 119 163 16 62 73 53 46 23 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 139 141 143 145 145 144 143 144 146 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 50 50 49 49 49 47 49 48 48 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 40 31 27 35 38 27 29 26 25 13 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -4 -26 -37 -18 -21 11 -17 -20 -26 -21 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 -1 -4 -1 2 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 769 869 956 1025 1100 1258 1426 1562 1662 1826 2050 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.3 14.0 13.8 13.5 13.2 13.1 13.2 13.6 13.7 13.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 161.4 162.4 163.3 164.3 165.2 167.3 169.5 171.3 172.8 174.7 177.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 10 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 12 21 34 46 45 33 33 19 31 68 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 24. 27. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 4. 8. 12. 16. 17. 21. 25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022015 IUNE 07/13/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 IUNE 07/13/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##