* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/13/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 55 62 68 79 88 92 95 93 95 88 87 V (KT) LAND 45 49 55 62 68 79 88 92 95 93 95 88 87 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 52 55 58 64 68 71 72 73 72 70 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 17 14 17 17 14 7 9 5 0 3 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -8 -11 -1 -3 -4 -4 -1 -3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 270 289 288 294 304 295 298 300 12 137 148 76 67 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.2 28.6 28.0 27.3 26.8 26.6 26.2 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 165 162 160 155 148 142 135 130 128 124 122 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.3 -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 -50.3 -50.9 -50.3 -50.7 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 7 8 7 8 6 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 80 79 79 77 74 72 71 69 70 70 66 66 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 20 22 23 27 32 35 38 39 41 38 39 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -8 -4 10 13 12 43 47 73 75 106 102 107 200 MB DIV 106 69 49 93 83 74 64 52 70 49 58 17 14 700-850 TADV 2 1 3 3 2 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 231 238 261 275 281 324 363 397 388 355 386 464 508 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 103.4 104.3 105.2 105.8 106.4 107.4 108.3 109.1 110.0 111.2 112.6 114.0 115.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 41 39 39 38 37 29 21 15 10 5 6 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 16. 18. 18. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 7. 10. 17. 25. 30. 35. 36. 40. 35. 36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 17. 23. 34. 43. 47. 50. 48. 50. 43. 42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/13/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/13/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##