* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062015 07/13/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 39 42 45 48 48 45 42 40 37 35 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 39 42 45 48 48 45 42 40 37 35 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 33 34 35 36 34 31 29 26 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 4 5 5 9 9 8 9 8 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 0 1 -1 0 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 81 74 86 107 136 188 173 181 181 167 155 138 137 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.2 26.4 25.8 25.4 25.0 24.6 24.6 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 143 143 142 135 126 120 115 111 106 104 107 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 66 65 61 62 61 61 61 59 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 17 16 16 16 17 17 17 16 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 107 102 90 85 75 67 66 55 49 50 47 38 38 200 MB DIV 109 97 61 33 37 16 4 11 -13 4 6 0 10 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -2 -2 0 0 0 1 3 2 1 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1870 1886 1906 1926 1945 2004 2079 2166 2250 2138 2045 1991 1974 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.2 15.5 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.6 18.2 18.3 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 125.9 126.6 127.2 127.8 128.4 129.8 131.1 132.4 133.6 134.6 135.4 135.9 136.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 15 19 24 21 17 11 8 6 3 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 19. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 18. 15. 12. 10. 7. 5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062015 SIX 07/13/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 SIX 07/13/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##