* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922015 07/13/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 37 38 37 34 33 31 33 33 26 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 37 38 37 30 34 32 33 34 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 28 28 28 32 32 34 36 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 24 31 35 32 31 27 30 38 42 15 15 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -1 -2 -3 -3 -3 0 0 4 1 2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 282 256 235 241 243 262 281 266 239 204 173 204 260 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.2 25.9 23.9 16.5 12.0 9.6 7.7 5.3 5.5 5.4 7.0 POT. INT. (KT) 125 127 128 114 99 73 68 67 65 62 59 60 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 106 107 98 86 69 66 65 64 N/A N/A N/A 61 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.6 -55.7 -55.6 -55.8 -55.9 -55.6 -55.0 -52.8 -51.3 -51.1 -51.9 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 52 52 55 58 60 65 71 69 60 51 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 11 14 20 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR -5 0 -8 -35 -46 -45 8 35 112 120 97 60 57 200 MB DIV 21 24 35 17 -2 22 10 49 50 38 23 -36 -13 700-850 TADV 3 10 11 13 24 29 25 25 -3 46 -41 -4 3 LAND (KM) 423 472 457 406 396 194 64 -18 49 62 122 29 -122 LAT (DEG N) 36.1 36.9 37.6 38.7 39.7 42.2 44.8 47.8 50.8 53.5 54.7 54.1 52.6 LONG(DEG W) 71.1 70.1 69.0 67.8 66.5 63.9 60.6 57.4 55.3 55.1 56.0 57.0 57.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 14 15 16 18 18 15 10 3 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 9. 3. -3. -9. -11. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. 1. 4. 9. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 13. 12. 9. 8. 6. 8. 8. 1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922015 INVEST 07/13/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922015 INVEST 07/13/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922015 INVEST 07/13/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)