* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IUNE CP022015 07/13/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 29 33 36 40 45 48 50 54 58 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 29 33 36 40 45 48 50 54 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 23 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 1 3 2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 131 103 100 104 102 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 141 143 144 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 51 50 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 28 29 37 43 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 -22 -26 -2 0 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 858 939 1008 1081 1159 1328 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.2 13.9 13.7 13.5 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 162.3 163.3 164.2 165.2 166.2 168.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 21 33 45 45 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 11. 15. 20. 23. 25. 29. 33. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022015 IUNE 07/13/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 IUNE 07/13/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##