* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/13/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 65 72 77 87 99 99 99 98 96 91 83 V (KT) LAND 55 59 65 72 77 87 99 99 99 98 96 91 83 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 62 66 69 74 78 81 82 81 78 73 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 13 15 16 6 7 4 2 4 3 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -6 -6 -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 286 281 285 301 305 302 356 17 347 151 118 73 70 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.6 27.9 27.2 26.7 26.4 26.0 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 162 159 156 153 148 141 134 129 127 123 117 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -50.5 -50.5 -50.4 -50.4 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 80 80 78 76 72 71 70 70 70 68 63 61 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 20 21 24 24 27 34 35 37 40 40 39 36 850 MB ENV VOR -7 0 12 15 13 23 52 53 80 89 98 112 122 200 MB DIV 79 61 85 90 71 102 67 69 56 53 38 26 -1 700-850 TADV 3 5 5 3 1 1 0 0 -6 -1 0 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 245 272 290 308 336 366 419 464 395 367 419 480 550 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.6 18.0 18.6 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.2 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.4 106.2 106.8 107.3 107.9 108.8 109.7 110.7 111.9 113.3 114.9 116.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 5 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 39 40 38 36 32 26 20 15 8 1 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 7. 9. 16. 27. 29. 31. 35. 36. 35. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 17. 22. 32. 44. 44. 44. 43. 41. 36. 28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/13/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/13/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##