* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062015 07/13/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 43 44 42 39 33 29 25 22 17 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 43 44 42 39 33 29 25 22 17 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 40 41 41 39 34 30 26 23 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 2 3 6 8 14 17 14 14 14 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -3 0 2 -1 1 -3 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 25 45 80 163 198 198 182 204 201 208 190 190 181 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 26.4 25.7 25.1 24.7 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 140 139 138 127 119 113 108 105 104 103 104 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 64 63 59 58 57 57 55 52 50 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 15 15 15 15 16 15 14 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 95 80 71 67 61 49 48 47 53 59 65 57 70 200 MB DIV 86 52 40 43 29 1 -8 -13 1 11 -5 -3 3 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -1 3 2 2 0 0 -5 LAND (KM) 1821 1843 1857 1879 1903 1977 2073 2159 2160 2040 1953 1911 1912 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.3 17.0 17.3 17.7 18.2 18.6 18.9 18.9 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 126.1 126.7 127.3 128.0 128.7 130.3 131.7 133.0 134.3 135.4 136.2 136.6 136.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 12 18 21 17 13 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 7. 4. -2. -6. -10. -13. -18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062015 SIX 07/13/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 SIX 07/13/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##